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News Release Embargoed until 0945 EDT (1345 UTC) 21 May 2026 S&P Global US Flash PMI® Flash PMI signals subdued growth in May amid price surge S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Gross domestic product May 2026 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m annualised % yr/yr Flash US Composite PMI Output Index: 51.7 (April: 70 12 51.7). Unchanged. 65 9 60 6 Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 55 3 50.9 (April: 51.0). 2-month low. 50 0 45 -3 Flash US Manufacturing Output Index: 56.2 (April: 40 -6 56.0). 49-month high. 35 -9 30 -12 Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (April: 54.5). 25 -15 48-month high. 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Data were collected 12-20 May 2026. Sources: S&P Global PMI, Bureau of Economic Analysis via S&P Global Market Intelligence. US business activity growth held steady in May at a modest ©2026 S&P Global. rate compared to earlier in the year, according to flash PMI data from S&P Global, as an improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector. However, factory growth was again in part supported by Comment temporary stock building and both sectors reported that order Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P book growth had been somewhat subdued by the ongoing war Global Market Intelligence: in the Middle East, most notably in terms of export sales. “The damaging economic impact from the war in the Surging input costs, which jumped in May at the steepest Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the rate since late-2022 on the back of rising war-related business surveys. The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded supply constraints and steep energy cost increases, were only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were not only cited as causing lower sales but also contributed cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic to steepening job losses and a further rise in selling price outlook. inflation to its highest since August 2022. “Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to Output and demand manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter. However, even this subdued pace Business activity continued to grow in May but at a reduced of growth may not last. On average, over the past three rate compared to that seen earlier in the year. The headline months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index, covering two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building both manufacturing and services, held steady at 51.7 in May. due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever. Growth over the past three months since the outbreak of war in the Middle East has been the weakest seen since the start “Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices. Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace of 2024. not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are Divergences persisted in terms of the impact of the war by being passed on to customers in the form of sharply sector. Service sector growth remained especially sluggish higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the and is on course for its weakest calendar quarter since late economy cools.” 2023 as new business inflows rose only modestly, albeit improving on the slight decline seen in April. Service providers reported subdued demand reflected rising prices and uncertainty, notably among consumer-facing businesses and for exports. Service exports fell at the sharpest rate for six years. Manufacturing output meanwhile rose at the fastest rate for © 2026 S&P Global S&P Global Flash US PMI® just over four years, the rate of growth accelerating from the US Services PMI Business Activity already-robust pace seen in April. However, an accompanying US Manufacturing PMI Output Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m marked influx of new orders for goods in part again reflected 80 precautionary stock building by clients. Order book growth in manufacturing was also purely domestically driven, with 70 goods exports falling again. 60 Employment 50 Sector divergences were also evident in terms of the labor 40 market. Measured overall, employment fell in May for the second time in the past three months, the rate of job losses 30 reaching the highest since August 2024 due to growing 20 concerns over rising costs and deteriorating demand 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 conditions. However, whereas service sector jobs were Source: S&P Global PMI. ©2026 S&P Global. reduced at the second-fastest pace seen since May 2020 (surpassed only by April 2024), manufacturing payrolls showed S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI the largest rise for 11 months as factories raised headcounts Index, sa, >50 = improvement m/m to meet the recent upturn in orders. 65 Future sentiment 60 Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead have 55 also diverged. Service sector optimism fell to its weakest 50 since April 2025, and second lowest since October 2022, reflecting growing concern over the outlook for demand 45 thanks to surging prices, higher interest rates and heightened 40 political uncertainty. In contrast, manufacturers were their most optimistic since February 2025 and one of the highest 35 levels seen since the pandemic, thanks to the recent upturn in 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 orders and the ongoing anticipation of tariff-related reshoring. Source: S&P Global PMI. ©2026 S&P Global. Supply chains and prices Services PMI Input Prices Manufacturing PMI Input Prices Services PMI Prices Charged Manufacturing PMI Output Prices War-related issues led to a further deterioration of supply Index, sa, >50 = inflation m/m chains. Factories reported the greatest lengthening of 90 supplier delivery times since August 2022. Lead-times have 80 now lengthened continually over the past nine months, with factories reporting that war-related shipping disruptions and 70 stock piling have exacerbated existing tariff-related supply constraints. Indeed, the amount of inputs bought by factories 60 rose at its steepest rate since April 2022, driving input 50 inventories higher. 40 Input price inflation surged to its highest since November 2022, in part due to supply constraints but also driven up by 30 increased energy prices. Manufacturing input costs registered 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 their largest monthly increase since June 2022. While the rise Source: S&P Global PMI. ©2026 S&P Global. in services costs was muted compared to manufacturing, it was nonetheless the steepest recorded for a year. US Composite PMI Output Prices Consumer prices Average prices charged for goods and services rose in April Index, sa, >50 = inflation m/m % yr/yr at the fastest rate since August 2022 amid the growing 75 12 supply scarcities and jump in costs. Goods prices showed 70 10 8 a particularly marked rise, the rate of increase hitting the 65 highest since September 2022, but service sector selling price 6 inflation also accelerated to a ten-month high and was one of 60 4 the sharpest rates seen over the past four years. 55 2 50 Manufacturing PMI 0 45 -2 The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May, 40 -4 up from 54.5 in April to sit at its highest since May 2022. The 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 expansion means factory business conditions have improved Sources: S&P Global PMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics via S&P Global Market Intelligence. continually since last August. ©2026 S&P Global. © 2026 S&P Global S&P Global Flash US PMI® Production growth was the fastest since April 2022 and jobs Contact were added at a rate not seen since June of last year. While new order growth slowed, it was the second fastest seen over Chris Williamson Florence Bogitsh the past four years. Input inventories also added positively to Chief Business Economist Senior Communications S&P Global Market Intelligence Manager, Americas the PMI, rising to the greatest extent for 11 months. However, T: +44-779-5555-061 S&P Global Market Intelligence this in part reflected the building of safety stocks amid price chris.williamson@spglobal.com T: +1-646-460-7204 and supply worries. Supplier delivery times lengthened to the florence.bogitsh@spglobal.com greatest degree since August 2022. press.mi@spglobal.com If you prefer not to receive news releases from S&P Global, please email press.mi@spglobal.com. To read our privacy policy, click here. Methodology Final May data are published on 1 June for manufacturing and 3 June for services and Flash data are calculated from around 80-90% of total responses and are intended to provide composite indicators. an accurate early indication of the final data. Since flash data were first processed, the The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI® is compiled by S&P Global from responses to average differences between final and flash index values for the headline indices are: questionnaires sent to survey panels of around 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers. Composite Output Index = 0.1 (absolute difference 0.4) The panels are each stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on Services Business Activity Index = 0.1 (absolute difference 0.4) contributions to GDP. The services sector is defined as consumer (excluding retail), transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. Manufacturing PMI = 0.0 (absolute difference 0.3) Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of S&P Global do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal change compared to the previous month. The following variables are monitored: adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) Manufacturing: Output, new orders, new export orders, backlogs of work, stocks of finished numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently revised data are goods, employment, quantity of purchases, suppliers' delivery times, stocks of purchases, available to subscribers from S&P Global. input prices, output prices, future output. For further information on the PMI survey methodology, please contact Services: Business activity, new business, new export business, outstanding business, economics@spglobal.com. employment, input prices, prices charged, future activity. A diffusion index is calculated for each manufacturing and services variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall S&P Global increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses then seasonally adjusted. and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can Composite indices for are calculated by weighting together comparable manufacturing and make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments services indices using official manufacturing and services annual value added. to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. The headline figure is the Composite Output Index. This is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index. It may be referred to as We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit the ‘Composite PMI’ but is not comparable with the headline Manufacturing PMI, which is a ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and weighted average of five manufacturing indices (including the Manufacturing Output Index). automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/pmi The headline manufacturing figure is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable PMI by S&P Global direction to the other indices. ® Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI ) surveys are now available for over 40 countries and also The headline services figure is the Services Business Activity Index. This is a diffusion index for key regions including the eurozone. They are the most closely watched business surveys calculated from a single question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for compared with one month previously. The Business Activity Index is comparable to the their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic Manufacturing Output Index. It may be referred to as the ‘Services PMI’ but is not comparable trends. www.spglobal.com with the headline Manufacturing PMI. 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